The roar between Iran and the US has many dimensions. The U.S has, almost, lost its interest in the Middle East and Iran has emerged as a regional power, along with Russian support, raring to challenge the interest of any power in the region. The deploying of the aircraft carrier in the region by the US is a precedent which gives insight to the relations between two countries. The US has imposed sanctions over Iran in order to build pressure over Iran’s economy. Iran has already been feeling the taste of sanctions and its economy is tumbling. However, the US cannot afford to engage Iran in the Strait of Hormuz to build more pressure over the Iran; Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has option to make difficult; the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan; Iran could severely damage the US interest in the Middle East and could threat Israel directly, the real ally of the US in Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important strait that links the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman. The Strait of Hormuz is considered to be the main artery of the oil from Middle East. It is due to its importance, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz several times in recent history. It is estimated that more than 20 % of the world’s oil flowed on ships through the Strait of Hormuz daily; it is almost equal to 17 million barrels of oil. The world has never seen the closure of the Strait of Hormuz despite many threats .However, if the Strait of Hormuz closed down it would hurt Iran’s economy as well. Iran’s economy mainly depends on the shipment of oil through strait. In addition, any closure of the Strait would likely cause war between Iran and the U.S and generate new tensions in the region between Iran and the other countries. So the engagement between two countries is unlikely.
Moreover, America is serious about the withdrawal of forces from the Afghanistan to end seventeen years long war of Afghanistan. American have shown clear intend to reach negotiation with Taliban to end the war and establish peace in the region. However, if America engage with Iran, it would be difficult to withdraw from Afghanistan with peace. Little support from Iran to Taliban will seriously hurt the American interests in Afghanistan. Iran enjoys considerable support within Afghanistan and if Iran aims to damage American’s interest in the region it could do easily through proxy war with support of Russia. America is not in position to engage Iran in the region; already America is facing challenges from China and other powers.
Lastly, Iran could damage other American interest in the Syria and Iraq. Iran has considerable support within Iraq and Syria. With diminishing interests of the America in the region could severely hurt the interest of the Israel in the region. The power of the Israel in the region shapes around the power of the America in the region. The new block is already in the making in form of alliance between Iran, Russia, Turkey and Pakistan. Interestingly, if America loses its interests in the region it could severely damage the Arab interests in the region. So, in a nutshell the bullying of Iran through Aircraft carrier is just to pressurize Iran diplomatically to bring the Iran’s government to table for new deal of Nuclear. Future will tell the how things will shape the geo politics of the region.
