Relations between Russia and United States keep reaching new lows, in several fields of interest; The ongoing conflict in Syria between the rebels and the Assad regime, the safety of Europe (Eastern Europe in particular), and each state’s interfering and influencing the other’s governing processes and internal sovereignty.
All of these adversarial sources of tension, may not be relevant anymore, by the next couple of years. These various theaters of conflict are a result of Obama’s foreign policy, and therefore we should produce new scenarios in the context, based on quotes, promises and possible interests that have been declared by the newly-elected president of the United States of America: Donald J. Trump.
Here are a number of principal scenarios put forth by Foreign-Affair pundits; 1) A continuation of Obama’s foreign policy, which will possibly translate into intensification of the tension between the two major-powers. 2) Mutual concession and compromises that will relieve tension between the two great nations, a process which perhaps could even create an initiative of partial cooperation in the Middle East, a source of baneful distress to both nations.3) Resolve of all major issues between Russia and the US, fully dismantling western sanctions that was thrust upon Russia as a retaliation act to her docile and aggressive foreign policy.
As I weigh the scenarios, with considerations of Foreign Affairs experts and specialists’ say on the matter, it seems that the most probable scenario is the second one- partial abetment of tension. As we take a retrospective look on declarations of intentions by Trump and his people, and look at the current direction of Russia’s economy plummeting to a more sordid state, we come to realize this scenario is almost inevitable, yet again these are unpredictable times.
Although there are no current plans to lift the sanctions; In a recent interview to the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Trump said that “at least for a period of time,” he would keep intact sanctions against Russia imposed by the Obama administration in late December in response to Moscow’s alleged cyberattacks to influence November’s election. It is possible that he withholds to act on the matter for fear that it will draw further suspicion to the current conspiracy of him working with Russia.
Mr. Trump said that “If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody’s doing some really great things?”. A way of thinking that still echoes from his presidential campaign.
Meanwhile back at the ranch (Russia), the political opposing forces tightening their grip around Putin’s neck, though it seems there’s still no real threat to the regime, and polls still indicating high percentage of Putin’s approval in the public. Russia’s recession is slowly morphing into stagnation, leaving the country’s economy in tatters and the domestic currency at half his value; A poorly economic state which in the future may frustrate the Russians and turn them against their leader- a concern that could drive Putin into making deals and compromises with newly elected United States’ president.
Itamar Bar-Haim
